2025 MLB Home Run Leader Auds: Can Ohtani cross Rale, Judge?

Everyone digs the long ball.

“Home runs” is one of those statistics that seems to hold more weight than others.

In two of the last three years, Aaron Judge has led the league in dingers. The year he didn’t Iead Major League Baseball in homers, he missed nearly 60 games.

Let’s take a look at the odds on who is favored to lead the major leagues in home runs in 2025 at FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 24.

Most regular-season home runs

Aaron Judge: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Cal Raleigh: +195 (bet $10 to win $29.50 total)
Shohei Ohtani: +340 (bet $10 to win $44 total)
Eugenio Suarez: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Kyle Schwarber: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)

Things are getting tense at the top.

Cal Raleigh — who was +2500 to lead baseball in home runs on May 16 — has 39 homers, followed by Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, both at 37.

But it’s Ohtani who is really making a push for the lead.

The Dodgers’ dual threat (pitcher and hitter) has homered in five straight games as of July 24, and on July 15, he was at +650 to win the home run title.

Still, despite Raleigh’s brilliant brawn and Ohtani’s heater, Judge is still the favorite.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge: Austin Butler on how the two stars are rewriting MLB history

Judge and Ohtani had quite the race last season, with the Yankees superstar hitting 58 and the Dodgers superstar finishing with 54 (he also added in 59 stolen bases).

Raleigh, who won the 2025 Home Run Derby, hit just 34 last season and 30 the year before.

In 2022, Judge hit a career-high and American League record 62 home runs, and after last season, he has three seasons tallying over 50 home runs in a single season (2017, 2022, 2024).

No active player outside of Judge has hit 60 or more home runs in a season, and no player in the NL has hit 60 or more since Barry Bonds mashed 73 in 2001.

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