When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took the stage in the annual Jackson Hole, Vyoming, Economic Forum on Friday, he would be pressurized to worry about President Trump’s repeated calls to repeated calls from calls to repeated calls to economic data.
Powell, whose term ends in May 2026 as a Fed Chair, will probably make his last major speech as a central bank leader. events, Which has been hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Canus City. The seminar is closely viewed by investors and economists as it offers Fed officials a phase to share their views on the economy and the direction of monetary policy.
A focal point in Jackson Hole would be that the Powell Fed provides any indication about the next interest-rate decision, which is scheduled for September 17. Mr. Trump has made the Fed useless to cut rates, indicating US economic data and silent inflation. Powell has mostly discontinued that pressure, emphasizing that the Central Bank is taking a “wait and see” approach as it monitors the possible impact of Trump administration. Fee on consumer prices,
Still Powell is facing a complex economic picture, pointing to one with recent signs Recession in job growth And a gauge of inflation is registering it Biggest growth in three years.
“You have this political pressure against financial pressure, which makes Powell’s job particularly difficult, and is running a hyper-focus on whatever can be said on Friday,” told CBS Manivatch, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research in Simkorp.
The Federal Reserve refused to comment before Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Seminar, which is the subject this year “Labor Markets in Transition: Democracy, Productivity and Macroeconomic Policy.”
Census City Fed will broadcast Powell’s speech on your YouTube Channel Eastern time on Friday at 10 am.
To cut or not to cut?
While Powell is likely to discuss economic trends in Jackson Hole, it is almost sure to demor the question that the Federal Open Market Committee, the Central Bank’s 12-protector interest rate-setting panel, can choose to reduce its benchmark rate.
This is by design. Fed officials are famous for the famous monetary policy – which are intentionally and consensual determined – privately before they are officially declared to avoid financial markets and insulating the central bank with political pressure.
Meanwhile, policy makers will have the opportunity to assess several major pieces of economic data before their September 16-17 meeting, including the report of monthly jobs of the Labor Department on SAPT 5 and the Consumer Price Index on 11 September.
Head of Labor Statistics Bureau Was fired in August Following the latest employment data of the agency, there was a sharp recession in job-making, making Mr. Trump motivated to question the accuracy of the data. For now, August payroll and CPI reports remain on the scheduled release calendar of the Labor Department.
Mike Sanders, head of fixed income at investment management firm Madison Investments, said, “I don’t think Powell can push the story to bite because it leaves her no choice, but to cut.”
Sanders said, “They have to indicate,” we are still data-dependent and we will see what the data tells us “so the fed is not pushed into a corner.
For his share, investors are clearly putting their bets at the fed lowering rates in September for the first time since December 2024. The economists at Wall Street expected the financial data company factset to take a 0.25 percent-point dipping the possibility of a cut of 88%.
Last year’s Jackson Hole event, Powell Signal In the first 23 years, the central bank was cutting the interest rate after increasing its benchmark rate to its highest level. Next month, Fed Announced a jumbo cut 0.50 percent marks in one step to promote economic growth.
Duality mandate
This year, Powells can use their platform in Vyoming similarly, so that they can indicate their openness for rate cuts, according to Denner, according to Denner, the main American economist of givel research. At the same time, the fed is also “in pickle”, which, given the figures and signals of disturbing jobs that the inflation could be high, he said in a report this week.
It speaks of the so -called double mandate of the fed, which is to maximize employment and reduce inflation. To balance those two goals, different – and sometimes conflicting – policies may be required, as reducing interest rates can promote job growth, while inflation can make high tick, and vice versa.
“The data alone suggests the increasing risk of a stagflation scenario, which, you know, a fed nightmare,” Denier said. “This puts them into a bond between two of his mandates in the struggle.”
Minutes for the Fed 30 July rate decision meeting, when FOMC chose to keep the rates stable again, some members showed that some members were “worried that the supply-chain disruptions are stubbornly elevating inflation,” indicating that the price growth remains on top of the brain, a report on Wednesday said Oxford Economics.
He said, “Labor market will be a swing factor on whether the Fed cuts interest rates in September,” he said.
